May 11, 2023, 11:00 AM ET

ESPN's fantasy basketball and basketball betting tips cheat sheet is your pregame destination for basketball betting predictions and our best intel and data, featuring ESPN's proprietary Basketball Power Index (BPI) to help you make smart daily fantasy and wagering decisions. NBA game odds for Thursday, May 11 are provided by Caesars Sportsbook.

What you need to know for Thursday's games

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As the start of the conference finals approaches, it's become time for close-out games. With a win over the visiting, and favored, Boston Celtics, the Philadelphia 76ers can advance to the penultimate round for the first time since 2001. The Phoenix Suns, meanwhile, are favored at home tonight to stave off elimination against the Denver Nuggets. Competition is elevated in such scenarios.

One player that stands out in regards to DFS projections is Jamal Murray of the Nuggets, as he's capable of consuming a 30% usage rate and is even a nice option for passing props. His assist prop sits at 6.5 on most platforms, a mark he's surpassed in three of five games against the Suns in this series. It's notable that Murray has produced 12.1 potential assists this postseason, second on his team only to Nikola Jokic's 14.5. When it comes to ceiling plays in this contest, it's hard to fade Kevin Durant and Devin Booker with their backs against the wall.

It's not often you'd consider the current MVP a value in lineups, but that's the case with Joel Embiid in this pivotal home spot. The league's leading scorer claims the second-highest projected fantasy floor in my model this evening, and yet comes in nearly at $2,000 less than Jokic in DFS terms on DraftKings. The Celtics' duo of Jaylen Brown and Jayson Tatum will surely command plenty of touches and shots in this must-win game, with Brown profiling as the stronger value given the sheer gap in pricing.

-- Jim McCormick

Breaking down the slate

Boston Celtics at Philadelphia 76ers
Game X: 7:30 p.m. ET, series 0-0

Records (Against the Spread)
Celtics: 57-25 (45-36-1)
76ers: 54-28 (46-35-1)

Line: Celtics (-2.5) Total: 212.5
BPI Projection: 76ers by 2
Money Line: Celtics (-135), 76ers (115)

Injury Report:
Celtics: Danilo Gallinari, (OUT - Knee)
76ers: Joel Embiid, (GTD - Knee)
Note: BPI numbers factor players who are ruled out but assumes GTD players will play

Editor's Picks

Best bet: Jayson Tatum over 44.5 points+assists+rebounds. In tonight's game against the 76ers, the Celtics are fighting to keep their season alive. For Tatum, this game could define his legacy. So far in the series, he's already exceeded 44.5 PAR in three out of five games. With plenty of playing time ahead of him, it's likely he'll surpass that total once again. The stakes are high, and all eyes will be on Tatum as he looks to lead his team to a win. -Eric Moody

Best bet: 76ers +2.5. The Celtics seem to be falling behind in the coaching department at the moment, with the 76ers making some impressive adjustments. Joel Embiid looked healthy in Game 5 and this could spell trouble for the Celtics as they prepare to face Philadelphia on their home court. It's worth noting that the 76ers are 4-1 against the spread in their past five home games. -Moody

Denver Nuggets at Phoenix Suns
Game X: 10:00 p.m. ET, series 0-0

Records (Against the Spread)
Nuggets: 53-29 (44-37-1)
Suns: 45-37 (42-38-2)

Line: Suns (-3) Total: 226
BPI Projection: Nuggets by 3.4
Money Line: Nuggets (130), Suns (-155)

Injury Report:
Nuggets: None reported
Suns: Deandre Ayton, (GTD - Ribs); Chris Paul, (OUT - Groin)
Note: BPI numbers factor players who are ruled out but assumes GTD players will play

Best bet: Suns -3.0. The stakes are high as the Suns look to defend their home court and secure a Game 7. To achieve this, they'll need to dominate the transition game and accumulate a ton of fast break points. The Nuggets handed the nuggets a tough loss in Game 5 by winning the fast break points battle. Luckily, the Suns have a solid home record against the Nuggets, winning their past five matchups at home. The cherry on top? The winner of each of these games also covered the spread. So if history repeats itself, the Suns should have no problem covering the spread and securing a crucial win. -Moody

Best bet: Kevin Durant over 14.5 rebounds+assists. I am particularly drawn to this prop bet at plus odds, like a moth to a flame. Chris Paul has been ruled out of Game 6 due to a groin injury. This means Durant will be taking on the role of the Suns' primary facilitator. Durant has surpassed 14.5 RA in the three previous games without Paul in this series. This is a crucial moment for both Durant and the Suns. While he's known for his scoring ability, don't underestimate his impact in other statistical categories. -Moody