May 10, 2023, 11:30 AM ET

ESPN's fantasy basketball and basketball betting tips cheat sheet is your pregame destination for basketball betting predictions and our best intel and data, featuring ESPN's proprietary Basketball Power Index (BPI) to help you make smart fantasy and wagering decisions. NBA game odds for Wednesday are provided by Caesars Sportsbook, and fantasy advice is based on ESPN 10-team leagues.

What you need to know for Wednesday

The reigning champs are on the ropes. The Golden State Warriors can't afford another loss in their series versus the Los Angeles Lakers, but they at least are sizable home favorites in Wednesday night's Game 5 matchup. The New York Knicks are also in must-win mode as they host the Miami Heat in Madison Square Garden in a contest that positions them as 3.5-point favorites.

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Once again, Draymond Green emerges as a projection darling in regards to DFS value, with an expectation to provide a slate-best 6.2 fantasy points per $1,000 spent in DraftKings salary. Green has exceeded his salary expectations in two of the past three games and even makes for a reasonable option for passing props as well as rewarding triple-double and double-double plays. For the Lakers, the revival of Anthony Davis as a two-way superstar means he's once again a bankable staple in lineups. Thankfully, the Eastern game offers a bevy of reasonable options in order to pay up for the likes of "The Brow."

Speaking of the game in the Garden, a bounce-back outing for Julius Randle is projected in this pivotal spot. Expect Randle's usage rate to near 30%, while teammates Josh Hart and Quentin Grimes can be viewed as bargain buys to complement expensive stars such as Stephen Curry, Randle and Davis. For Miami, Caleb Martin is the bargain play I'm targeting. With this tandem of crucial contests set for Wednesday, our crew of analysts will have you prepared.

-- Jim McCormick

Breaking down Wednesday's slate

Miami Heat at New York Knicks
Game 5: 7:30 p.m. ET, Heat lead series 3-1

Records (against the spread)
Heat: 44-38 (30-49-3)
Knicks: 47-35 (45-35-2)

Line: Knicks (-3.5) Total: 209.5
BPI Projection: Knicks by 7.8
Money Line: Heat (140), Knicks (-165)

Injury report:
Heat: Caleb Martin, (GTD - Back); Haywood Highsmith, (GTD - Knee); Jimmy Butler, (GTD - Ankle); Tyler Herro, (OUT - Hand); Victor Oladipo, (OUT - Knee)
Knicks: Immanuel Quickley, (GTD - Ankle); Jericho Sims, (OUT - Shoulder)
Note: BPI numbers factor players who are ruled out but assumes GTD players will play

Editor's Picks

Best bet: Knicks -3.5. Down 3-1, the Knicks aren't going down without a fight, and they're at home. Jalen Brunson, RJ Barrett and Julius Randle are all going to play well in the Garden, and the Knicks are going to get a win Wednesday to force Game 6 at Miami on Friday night. The chances of them being sent packing for Cancun on Friday are pretty decent, but I'll be surprised if they don't win easily at home in Game 5. The Knicks are due, and the fact that Jimmy Butler (ankle) is iffy for the Heat only works in their favor. -- Steve Alexander

Best bet: Jalen Brunson over 25.5 points. Brunson has scored 25, 30, 20 and 32 points in the four games in this series and the Knicks will be going all-in to avoid being put out of the playoffs at home. Brunson scored 30 in Game 2 at New York and played 44 minutes with 32 points and 11 dimes in a Game 4 loss at Miami on Monday. He should play 44 minutes again in Game 5, barring a blowout, and will leave it all on the court in hopes of forcing a Game 6 back in Miami on Friday. Backup point guard Immanuel Quickley (ankle) is doubtful, which only helps Brunson's cause Wednesday. -- Alexander

Best bet: Jimmy Butler over 27.5 points. Playoff Jimmy is elite. In the first round, Butler hit over this mark in four of five games against the Milwaukee Bucks. Let's be honest, Miami wants to close out the series and get rest for the Eastern Conference Finals. Despite hitting over this mark in just one of three games played against the Knicks in this series, Butler is primed to have a big game and will top his points prop. -- Erin Dolan

Why Tyler Fulghum is siding with the Warriors in Game 5

Tyler Fulghum explains why he likes the Warriors to cover in Game 5 vs. the Lakers.

Los Angeles Lakers at Golden State Warriors
Game 5: 10 p.m. ET, Lakers lead series 3-1

Records (against the spread)
Lakers: 43-39 (39-41-2)
Warriors: 44-38 (39-42-1)

Line: Warriors (-7) Total: 226
BPI Projection: Warriors by 0
Money Line: Lakers (250), Warriors (-320)

Injury report:
Lakers: Anthony Davis, (GTD - Foot); LeBron James, (GTD - Foot); Mo Bamba, (GTD - Ankle)
Warriors: Patrick Baldwin Jr., (GTD - Toe); Andre Iguodala, (OUT - Wrist); Ryan Rollins, (OUT - Foot)
Note: BPI numbers factor players who are ruled out but assumes GTD players will play

Best bet: Warriors -7. The Warriors' lone win in this series was a 127-100 blowout at L.A., and I'm guessing they're going to get back on the blowout bandwagon Wednesday night. They can't afford to lose, will have a frenzied home crowd behind them and they'll all be looking for Curry to do his thing. He's coming off a monster 31-10-14 triple-double, and I'm looking for him to push the 40-point plateau in an easy Dubs win. The Warriors have played much better at home than on the road this season, and Wednesday should be no different. -- Alexander

Best bet: Curry over 30.5 points. Like the Knicks, the Warriors will try to avoid elimination at home down 3-1 to the Lakers. Curry had 31 points in Monday's loss at L.A. but hadn't scored more than 27 in his previous three games in this series. The Warriors' collective backs are against the wall, and it's no secret that they are 1-14 all time in playoff series when trailing 3-1. Their lone comeback was in 2016 in the WCF when they shocked the Thunder. If the Warriors are going to keep this series going, they're going to need at least 30 points from Curry. And the Warriors are a much better team at home than they are on the road. Curry is going to go off. -- Alexander

Best bet: LeBron James under 25.5 points. LeBron has gone under this mark in three of four series games against the Warriors. Not to mention, he has hit under this number in eight of 10 games this postseason. The Lakers are up 3-1 in the series, so I expect the Warriors to come out strong at home. In the event that this is a blowout like Game 2 of this series, LeBron could be rested throughout the game while the Lakers lean on the supporting cast. -- Dolan