Apr 13, 2023

Rising featherweight contender Arnold Allen will take on the biggest challenge of his fighting career as he will face former division champion Max Holloway in the main event of this weekend's UFC Fight Night. The event takes place at the T-Mobile Center in Kansas City on Saturday (8:30 p.m. ET on ESPN/ESPN+, with prelims at 5:30 ET on ESPN+).

Holloway, ranked No. 3 in ESPN's divisional rankings, is coming off of a title fight loss to Alexander Volkanovski at UFC 276 in July 2022. Allen, ranked No. 8, is undefeated in the UFC. He beat Calvin Kattar by second-round TKO in October last year.

On Friday night, the PFL will continue its regular season with the featherweights and lightweights as the promotion hosts PFL 3 at The Theater at Virgin Hotels in Las Vegas. The main event will feature last season's welterweight champion Sadibou Sy fighting Jarrah Al-Silawi. Magomed Magomedkerimov will face Ben Egli in the co-main event.

Brett Okamoto spoke to Ludwig Martial Arts coach Duane Ludwig to get his perspective on the UFC main event. ESPN's betting experts Ian Parker and Reed Kuhn add their insights and analysis on both main events and other intriguing bets they like on the card. Parker also provides his take on the best bets on Friday's PFL 2 fight card.

Editor's note: Responses have been edited for brevity and clarity.

UFC featherweight: Max Holloway vs. Arnold Allen

Duane Ludwig, Ludwig Martial Arts coach

Tale of the Tape

	Holloway	Allen
Age	31.4	29.2
Height	71.0	68.0
Reach	69.0	70.0
Stance	Orthodox	Southpaw
Last Fight	Jul. 2, 2022	Oct. 29, 2022

How Holloway wins: If I'm his coach, I'm telling him, 'Do what you do best.' Stay active, change your stances and make sure he's trying to find you. I think Holloway can pick Allen apart with the changes in stances and deeper skill set. He'll have opportunities to intercept Allen with punches and kicks. The kicks will be effective because of the distance Allen gives, as long as they're quick and he can't read the setups. Eventually, he'll get Allen to start taking risks and get a hold of him with those well-timed shots on his entries. Holloway's skills matchup better against Allen than they did against Volkanovski. Allen will strike with him at a distance. Holloway was having trouble with the shorter, quicker opponent -- often, he was waiting for Volkanovski, and Volkanovski is so fast that it can be a problem. Against Allen, Holloway can remain consistently active.

How Allen wins: I hadn't heard much about Allen until researching him recently, and I'm impressed. He likes to grapple, but he was also undefeated as a kickboxer. He needs to put Holloway on his heels. He likes to throw that rear hook from the southpaw stance, which is great. He should switch to orthodox for a follow-up shot when he throws that. Still, his best bet is to grab Holloway and wrestle him to the ground. It needs to be with pressure, though. Press Holloway to that black line in the cage and don't let him breathe.

X-factor: Holloway is coming off facing the top guys in the world, not only in his division but in the sport. He's had an entire career of fighting people who could keep him motivated. Is he motivated to fight Allen? Allen is not necessarily an up-and-comer, but he's not a championship-level name like Holloway is used to. His experience can be a factor here -- as long as he's up for it. Because Allen is going to be super motivated. Can Holloway draw on his experience advantage, while also not getting complacent and unmotivated?

Prediction: Holloway puts him away by the end of the third round.

Betting analysis

UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs. Allen

Stand-up striking offense	Holloway	Allen
Total knockdown ratio (Knockdowns/times knocked down)	12:0	4:1
Distance knockdown rate	4.6%	1.8%
Head jab accuracy	36%	26%
Head power accuracy	31%	43%
Standup strike ratio (Attempted vs. opp. attempted)	0.8	1.4
Wrestling and grappling
TD Attempts per Min Standing/Clinch	0.14	0.27
Takedown Accuracy	42%	21%
Advances per takedown/top control	1.7	0.6
Opponent takedown attempts	61	36
Takedown defense	69%	64%
Share of fight time in ground control	33%	55%
Submission Attempts per Trip to Ground	0.57	0.16
Table compiled by Reed Kuhn

Kuhn: Holloway to win (-190). Holloway hasn't lost a non-title fight in a decade, and that was to a relative newcomer named Conor McGregor in 2013. Meanwhile, Allen has certainly put up an impressive win streak of his own, but not nearly against the same level of competition.

Can Allen hang with Holloway round to round? Holloway is capable of stepping on the gas like few others. Holloway has accumulated his excellent performance metrics of accuracy, efficiency, and durability, despite facing a murderer's row of competition. What he lacks in walk-off power, he makes up for with volume. And in a five-rounder, that can add up. He has late-round stoppages, and we've never seen Allen past the third round. Overall, it's a relatively affordable price to back Holloway. Though he's taken a fair bit of damage since joining the UFC at a young age, I'm hoping he's not quite ready yet for a decline.

Best bets on the rest of the card

Billy Quarantillo makes light work of Alexander Hernandez

Billy Quarantillo finishes Alexander Hernandez in the second round of their prelim fight at UFC 282.

Men's featherweight: Edson Barboza vs. Billy Quarantillo

Kuhn: Barboza to win (+150). Quarantillo is likely to initiate grappling first, but as a feared striker, Barboza has had to defend takedowns often throughout his career. Overall, his defense is well above average. While on the feet, he uses the highest pace of striking on the card, but his poor head strike defense is a glaring hole in Quarantillo's game. That is a liability against Barboza, creating an obvious path to victory.

Editor's Picks

Getting Barboza at plus money is a value play, in what is quantitatively closer to a coin flip scenario.

Parker: Over 1.5 rounds. Quarantillo will need to avoid the early onslaught of Barboza. And more importantly, his dangerous kicks. Win or Lose, we have seen Quarantillo go to the third round in five of his last six fights. Barboza must utilize his calf kicks to slow down Quarantillo and prevent him from picking up the pace as the fight continues. Considering Quarantillo's skill as a grappler, I expect Barboza to try to keep his distance with heavy lateral movement. Coincidentally, in his last six fights, Barboza has either reached the third round or gone to the last bell.

Light heavyweight: Dustin Jacoby vs. Azamat Murzakanov

Parker: Jacoby to win (-175). Murzakanov tends to start slow, and if he can't get the takedown early, he relies on his power in his strikes. However, he is taking on an opponent in Jacoby, one of the division's elite strikers. Murzakanov is a good matchup for Jacoby to get back on track. Look for Jacoby to fight from a distance and avoid the early takedown attempts. I expect Jacoby to win via decision if he can control the pace and let his hands go.

Light heavyweight: Tanner Boser vs. Ion Cutelaba

Kuhn: Cutelaba to win (-125). We could see early fireworks in this fight, even if things look a bit sloppy.

Though Cutelaba has been taken advantage of by superior grapplers in the past, that won't be an issue against Boser, who has never attempted a takedown in his UFC career. Odds opened with Boser as the favorite, but the market has pushed Cutelaba to a mild favorite, and I agree with that swing. There's still a little value in Cutelaba returning to the win column after racking up losses to the division's elite.

Lightweight: Clay Guida vs. Rafa Garcia

Parker: Guida to win (+200) Currently, Garcia is a 2-1 favorite over Guida, and that has me a little thrown off. A flier on Guida as the underdog is worth it. Don't get me wrong, Garcia is as tough as they come and will continue to press forward. But we have seen him gas out in the past and struggle against wrestlers. Guida has an unlimited gas tank and has improved his striking. I believe Guida will push the pace early and try to tire out Garcia and then take over in Round 2 and Round 3.

Best bets for PFL 2

Lightweight: Sadibou Sy vs. Jarrah Al-Silawi

Parker: Sy to win. Al-Silawi opens the season taking on Sy, last year's winner. Al-Silawi will have to fight a near-perfect fight if he wants to beat the champ. For Sy, he needs to stick to what he does best -- controlling the pace and fighting from a distance. As long as he avoids the takedowns and wild punches, I expect Sy to control the striking and likely win by decision.

Lightweight: Olivier Aubin-Mercier vs. Shane Burgos

Parker: Burgos to win. This should be an exciting fight as Aubin-Mercier carries power to pair with his good wrestling, and high fight IQ, while Burgos lives up to his nickname, "Hurricane." Last season we saw a big improvement in Aubin-Mercier's striking and lateral movement. However, until he landed the counter knockout against Stevie Ray for the 2022 PFL championship, Ray was winning the fight with constant pressure and high-volume striking. I expect Burgos, who has an endless gas tank, to do the same. If Burgos can avoid the takedowns and cutoff angles, I can see Burgos pulling off the upset in his debut.

Lightweight: Clay Collard vs. Yamato Nishikawa

Parker: Collard to win. At 21-3, Nishikawa has an 86 percent finish rate, with 14 of those wins coming by knockout. However, his last two opponents have a combined record of 9-14. Meaning he has not fought the same level of competition as Collard. Collard is a nonstop action fighter with fantastic striking and an underrated ground game. The finish rate of Nishikawa doesn't concern me at all, and it only helps us get a better line on the Collard side. Expect Collard to move forward with a high volume of strikes and a tortuous pace that will overwhelm Nishikawa.

Welterweight: Magomed Umalatov vs. Dilano Taylor

Parker: Umalatov to win. As good as Taylor looked last season, and his potential is through the roof, this matchup against Umalatov is a tough ask for anyone. I expect Umalatov to pressure forward with his striking and take the fight to the floor, where he will have the advantage. Taylor has shown good takedown defense against MacDonald, but Umalatov is a different type of monster.

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2023-04-27 21:31:43