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Philadelphia Phillies LHP Jose Alvarado was so erratic last May that the organization demoted him to Triple-A Lehigh Valley for a few weeks. Alvarado always had intriguing stuff, but he could not command it and often had little idea where it was going. Fantasy baseball managers wanted no part of Alvarado, of course. In a crowded Philadelphia bullpen that includes potential Hall of Famer Craig Kimbrel, who is approaching 400 career saves, few in ESPN standard leagues invested in Alvarado for this season.

Today, Alvarado is arguably the best relief pitcher in the sport. He ranks fifth among closers on ESPN's Player Rater (roto) and third in points formats, entering this May as a truly dominant pitcher having permitted just one earned run over 12⅓ innings. The erratic guy who issued 47 walks over 55⅔ innings in 2021 has issued nary a free pass, and he has struck out 55.8% of hitters he has faced. He has saves in five of his last six appearances.

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Alvarado gets the early-season nod for fantasy relief pitcher MVP when taking into context preseason expectations and draft day value. Pittsburgh Pirates RHP David Bednar, San Diego Padres LHP Josh Hader, Cleveland Guardians RHP Emmanuel Clase and Baltimore Orioles RHP Felix Bautista rank better for relievers on the Player Rater, each boasting more saves ... and a top-100 draft day investment. None has been as dominant as Alvarado, the most-added reliever in ESPN leagues, but still available in more than 40% of them.

The Phillies added Kimbrel and former Detroit Tigers closer Gregory Soto to a group including Alvarado and RHP Seranthony Dominguez, clouding the saves picture enough that none of these fellows were coveted by fantasy managers. Most believed Kimbrel, who does have three saves in 13 appearances, would handle the ninth inning much of the time. Alvarado, refining his fastball/cutter mix last summer, flew under the radar. He posted a 1.85 ERA and a 0.82 WHIP after the All-Star break, fanning 43% of batters faced, and he was a key contributor in the playoffs. Knowing Kimbrel's struggles, perhaps the rise of Alvarado to closing isn't so stunning.

The first month-plus of the 2023 season has seen marginal turnover among closers, with more than a third of save situations still relatively fluid, and, because of the nature of bad teams, irrelevant. However, Alvarado, Seattle Mariners RHP Paul Sewald and New York Mets RHP David Robertson lead the way as prime free-agent pickups nearly as valuable as the top options. Don't spend top-100 draft picks on relievers. Get bats and aces. The relievers are always out there during the season, especially now that holds matter in ESPN standard leagues.

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Carlos Estevez, Los Angeles Angels: The former Colorado Rockies setup man ceded early-season saves to LHP Jose Quijada, but now boasts saves in four consecutive outings. This might have happened even if Quijada remained healthy. Estevez struggled with command early, but he hasn't issued a walk over his last five appearances. He looks to be on his way to 30-plus saves.

A.J. Puk, Miami Marlins: The former Oakland Athletics setup man gives off a Hader vibe with his intimidating build (he's 6-foot-7) and electric lefty motion, and he has the numbers to back up the comparison as well. Puk has two wins and four saves over his last six outings, and he has issued only two walks all season. RHP Dylan Floro has value for holds, but Puk is the Miami reliever you want.

Bryan Abreu, Houston Astros: Abreu filled in for closer Ryan Pressly with a pair of saves two weekends ago -- more proof that he had become the team's top setup man and next in line for the ninth inning. Pressly, 34, served a pair of IL stints last season and likely gets handled carefully again for a team thinking mainly about October. Abreu was the better pitcher last season, and he should sail past 30 saves-plus-holds.

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Ryan Helsley, St. Louis Cardinals: Helsey still reaches triple-digits with his wicked fastball, but he has shown less command of the pitch so far, resulting in a return of his worrisome walk rate from 2021. Former closer Giovanny Gallegos, however, has pitched great so far. The Cardinals seem likely to turn their rough start around -- which they always seem to do -- and someone will earn saves. Three Cardinals relief pitchers are among the leaders (on the unlucky side) in BABIP, including Helsley, so be patient. Nevertheless, Gallegos lurks.

Clay Holmes, New York Yankees: The last-place Yankees (OK, so they are 15-15) have had only one save in the past three weeks, and that one went to Michael King, who continues to thrive in a multi-inning role but might force manager Aaron Boone to reconsider. Holmes isn't struggling so much, though his once-dominant groundball rate is merely average now. The two runs he permitted on Monday were unearned due to his own error and, as with the Cardinals, the saves should return when the team improves. However, as with the Cardinals, another reliever or two (Wandy Peralta) may join him in the saves mix.

A.J. Minter, Atlanta Braves: Expected closer Raisel Iglesias (shoulder) should return from his IL stint this week and Minter, who has permitted runs in four of his past five outings can no longer make a justifiable case to share the role. His ERA is 8.56, though again, a bloated BABIP plays some part in that. Atlanta's top relievers in points leagues so far have been LHP Dylan Lee and RHP Nick Anderson. Holds count!

Fantasy baseball karabell bullpen blog tuesday 2

2023-05-03 00:00:55