As the NBA prepares to take center stage on Christmas Day, there's something missing in the Western Conference: a team with at least 20 wins.

This time a year ago, both the eventual champion Golden State Warriors and Phoenix Suns had 26 wins entering their Christmas showdown, and even the Utah Jazz were off to a 22-9 start.

This season, the Denver Nuggets and Memphis Grizzlies share the top spot in the West with 19-11 records. The New Orleans Pelicans -- tied for the conference lead as recently as Dec. 14 -- have dropped back to third after four consecutive losses.

Although Christmas hasn't always fallen at the same point on the NBA schedule, the lack of a dominant team in the West through 30 games is historically notable. The last time either conference had a team without at least 20 wins this deep in the season was 2006-07, and it had only happened once before in the West (1988-89) since the ABA-NBA merger in 1976-77.

What does the atypical parity mean for the West title race? And which team has the best chance of winning a wide-open conference? Let's break it down.

Handicapping a middle-heavy West

In the past, the lack of great teams has usually meant a weak conference. In 2006-07, the West was in the midst of a nine-season stretch of winning at least 56% of games between the two conferences. In 1988-89, the East had its best record (.596) in interconference games.

Unsurprisingly, both years saw the dominant conference sweep the NBA Finals, albeit with injuries to Los Angeles guards Magic Johnson and Byron Scott aiding the Detroit Pistons' 4-0 win over the Lakers in 1989.

That's not the case so far this season. After narrowly losing the interconference battle in 2021-22 (226-224) for the first time since 2008-09, the West leads 90-84 so far in 2022-23. The play-in battle in the West looks far more competitive than the East with just four teams more than three games below .500, but nobody has separated themselves at the top either.

As a result, a mere three games in the standings separate first and eighth in the West. That's tied for the second-smallest gap through 30 games since the merger, with only the aforementioned 1988-89 West (two games) more compact at this stage of the season.

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Every time it feels like a West leader is emerging, it stumbles. After a six-game winning streak to close November, the Suns were on top at 15-6. With injuries to starters Cam Johnson and Chris Paul taking a toll, the Suns lost six of their next seven games.

Two of those losses came to the Pelicans in a rematch of last year's competitive first-round matchup, putting New Orleans in first before a series of losses, including one by four points in Phoenix on Saturday.

With the Pelicans stumbling, the Grizzlies claimed the best record behind a seven-game winning streak capped with a 41-point win over the Milwaukee Bucks. Memphis, too, couldn't keep it up, losing at Oklahoma City on Saturday and Denver on Tuesday, moving the Nuggets into a tie for first.

Add in the defending champion Warriors languishing below .500 without injured star Stephen Curry, and oddsmakers don't know who to favor in the West. As of Wednesday, six teams had odds between plus-375 and plus-750 of winning the conference at Caesars Sportsbook. By contrast, only one East team (the Brooklyn Nets) is in this range, with the two favorites (the Boston Celtics and Milwaukee Bucks) having better odds to win the conference and everyone else a more sizable long shot.

Assessing the logjam of West contenders

Let's take a look at the teams Caesars Sportsbook gives a good chance of winning the West to see if we can find a favorite.

Despite their below-.500 record, the Warriors are still favored by Caesars (plus-375 odds). I can see the argument for picking Golden State to win any individual playoff series, even without home-court advantage. The issue will be stacking those series wins together after a possible -- or more accurately likely -- trip through the play-in tournament.

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We've been here before with the defending champions: The 2020-21 Lakers, who were still favored to win the West after escaping the play-in tournament. Instead, with Anthony Davis suffering an injury after the Lakers took a 2-1 lead over Phoenix, the Lakers were eliminated in the first round.

Eventually, a team will rise out of the play-in tournament to win the conference. Still, I don't believe it makes sense to favor a team that is likely to end up in that position.

Next up are the LA Clippers (plus-390), who haven't lost much ground in the standings with Kawhi Leonard and Paul George barely playing together this season. That's the good news. The bad news is the Clippers' vaunted depth hasn't impressed thus far. They have just a plus-0.1 point differential on the season and have needed an 11-6 record in clutch scenarios -- defined as games within five points in the last five minutes (or overtime) to stay above .500.

As long as George and Leonard stay healthy, coach Tyronn Lue has enough options to find a workable rotation for any playoff matchup. Still, I'm not as optimistic now as when I picked the Clippers to win the West in the preseason.

The Suns (plus-500) have been the West's most consistent winners, having reached the 2021 Finals and posted the league's best record in 2021-22. Their plus-5.0 differential paces the conference. They're also perhaps the West contender with the clearest path to an in-season upgrade whenever they trade forward Jae Crowder, who has yet to play this season.

The big question for Phoenix is veteran point guard Chris Paul, who's shooting a career-low 42% on 2-point attempts after hitting them at a career-best 59% clip last season. As much as younger teammates Devin Booker and Mikal Bridges have stepped up their shot creation, the Suns surely need Paul playing at a high level to return to the Finals.

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Recent stumbles aside, the Grizzlies (plus-550) seem well-positioned to claim the top seed in the West. Their plus-4.2 differential ranks third in the conference despite injuries to key starters Desmond Bane and Jaren Jackson Jr., who have yet to play together this season. Both FiveThirtyEight's projections and those using ESPN's Basketball Power Index make Memphis the favorite for the No. 1 seed.

The team tied for first with the Grizzlies, Denver (plus-600), looks a lot like the Clippers in broad strokes. The Nuggets have similarly avoided losing ground despite an injury to Michael Porter Jr., who hasn't played since before Thanksgiving due to a heel strain. Yet Denver's plus-1.4 differential is more typical of a team with a 16-14 record. The Nuggets have gone 9-4 in clutch games.

Denver is positioned to earn a top-four seed even if regression hits, so their modest odds seem to reflect skepticism whether a bottom-10 defense on a per-possession basis can get enough stops in the playoffs.

Lastly, the Pelicans (plus-750) have played their way into this conversation with their strong start. New Orleans has the conference's second-best differential (plus-4.8) with Brandon Ingram limited to 15 games.

The recent losing streak has exposed some cracks defensively, as New Orleans opponents have posted three of its six highest offensive ratings all season in that span. The Pelicans struggle to protect the rim, allowing a league-high 74% shooting inside the restricted area, according to Second Spectrum tracking data. They've been able to overcome that to rank sixth in defensive rating with strong play everywhere else, but that's the kind of weakness that could sink a playoff run.

At this point, I'm inclined to pick Memphis to win the West. The Grizzlies have a good shot at home-court advantage through the conference finals, balance on offense and defense and perhaps the best combination of a strong starting five and reasonable depth.

Befitting the West, though, I might have a different answer by New Year's Day.

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2023-05-15 07:30:25