Apr 27, 2023

Bantamweight contenders Song Yadong and Ricky Simon will go head-to-head in the main event of UFC Fight Night. The event takes place at the UFC Apex in Las Vegas on Saturday (7 p.m. ET on ESPN+, with prelims at 4:30 p.m. on ESPN2/ESPN+).

Song, ranked No. 9 in ESPN's divisional rankings, is coming off of a tough loss to Cory Sandhagen in September. Simon, unranked by ESPN, is riding a five-fight win streak. He beat Jack Shore by second-round submission in his most recent fight last July.

Brett Okamoto spoke to former UFC welterweight Alan Jouban to get his perspective on the UFC main event. ESPN's betting experts Reed Kuhn and Ian Parker add their insights and analysis on the main event and other intriguing bets they like on the card.

Editor's note: Responses have been edited for brevity and clarity.

Bantamweight: Song Yadong vs. Ricky Simon

Alan Jouban, former UFC welterweight

Tale of the Tape

	Song	Simon
Age	25.3	30.6
Height	68.0	66.0
Reach	67.0	69.0
Stance	Orthodox	Orthodox
Last Fight	Sep. 17, 2022	Jul. 16, 2022

How Song wins: Song stands out a lot more in the striking. He's going to have the speed advantage, and he's just tighter overall in that area. Simon is more traditional, not necessarily in a bad way, but he's your traditional wrestler with heavy hands. He's swinging out there, where Song is much smoother. Song should rely on his speed advantage and use his takedown defense, which is great.

Song's not known for his kicks. He'll only throw three or four per round, but they are all on target. He surprises people with them, and I think that could be a factor here. Use his hand speed, throw combinations and I could see him sneaking in a head kick here and there. It sounds cut and dry, but that's what this matchup is. Song needs to stay standing and land his power shots.

How Simon wins: Simon has more options to win because of his wrestling offense. He needs to feint in and out and up and down. Show Song the takedown attempts. Even when Simon doesn't commit to it, force Song to respect it. Simon has super fast entries on his takedowns. Song is more mobile and has better hand speed, but Simon's takedown entry is super quick as well. Once he starts feinting that, it will force Song to drop his hands. That's when Simon will have a chance to land one of those big haymakers to the chin.

X-factor:. If Simon's going to win this fight, he has to make it dirty. I believe you're going to see Song lead the dance because he's tighter. His hands come back to his chin, he's fast. Simon is a few years behind him in that regard. So, Simon has to bite down and make this fight ugly.

Prediction: Song is the more technical guy, but something tells me Simon will find a way to grind it out. I'm picking Simon.

Betting analysis

UFC Fight Night: Song vs. Simon

Stand-up striking offense	Song	Simon
Total knockdown ratio (Knockdowns/times knocked down)	5:0	4:2
Distance knockdown rate	1.8%	4.0%
Head jab accuracy	26%	24%
Head power accuracy	34%	33%
Standup strike ratio (Attempted vs. opp. attempted)	1.1	0.8
Wrestling and grappling
TD Attempts per Min Standing/Clinch	0.09	1.05
Takedown Accuracy	56%	48%
Advances per takedown/top control	0.9	0.6
Opponent takedown attempts	42	39
Takedown defense	71%	77%
Share of fight time in ground control	51%	96%
Submission Attempts per Trip to Ground	0.12	0.08
Table compiled by Reed Kuhn

Kuhn: Simon to win (-125). Last week's bump is this week's gain. While this matchup features fighters with similar standup metrics, they have very different grappling tendencies. Simon is the better dual-threat fighter between them, with twice the knockdown rate and the capability of changing levels.

The standup exchanges will be close round-to-round, but Simon mixes in frequent takedown attempts and has been dominant on the mat -- the area Song appears least comfortable. Youth, in this case, is not as much of an advantage, if this fight spends extended periods on the mat. There's value in Simon thanks to the fairly even odds.

Best bets on the rest of the card

Michal Oleksiejczuk drops Sam Alvey in Round 1 for big win

Michal Oleksiejczuk defeats Sam Alvey with a well-placed haymaker in Round 1 of their bout.

Middleweight: Caio Borralho vs. Michal Oleksiejczuk

Editor's Picks

Parker: Borralho to win (-370). Oleksiejczuk will have his hands full with the rising prospect. Although we have seen an improvement in Oleksiejczuk's takedown defense, Borralho is a high-level grappler with creative takedowns. Look for Borralho to utilize his ground game against the aggressive striker in Oleksiejczuk. Being a 3-to-1 favorite, I recommend throwing Borralho in a parlay or taking him to win by submission.

Heavyweight: Marcos Rogerio de Lima vs. Waldo Cortes-Acosta

Parker: de Lima to win (-180). Cortes-Acosta is a good striker with a powerful right hand. However, we have seen that after two fights, he still can't defend takedowns or leg kicks effectively. If Cortes-Acosta cannot defend the leg kicks or keep the fight standing, he is going to be in for quite the education against de Lima, who continues to fly under the radar in the heavyweight division. I believe he should be a much bigger favorite than the lines suggest and I expect him to waste no time getting Cortes-Acosta down to the mat where he will dominate and get the win.